The recent weakness in BTR isn't because renter demand collapsed. It's because the market had to absorb a huge wave of new supply. That supply wave is now ending.
The presentation shows that BTR completions peaked in 2025 at roughly 53,323 homes and are forecast to fall dramatically over the next several years. By 2027, completions are projected to be about 52% below the 2025 peak, and by 2028 about 77% below it.
So the phrase running through the deck is essentially:
"The supply cliff creates opportunity."
What the data says
The deck focuses on three things:
- Rents are firming. National advertised BTR rents reached about $2,240 in July 2026, with rent growth improving compared with the same periods in 2025. Brad makes an important distinction that these are advertised or "face" rents; concessions can still make effective rents softer.
- Occupancy is holding up. National BTR occupancy is around 94.7%, despite the industry absorbing its largest-ever delivery wave. That supports the argument that the underlying rental-demand side hasn't broken.
- New supply is falling sharply. Units under construction are down roughly 48% from the early-2024 peak, while built-for-rent starts are down about 26% year over year. Because construction leads completions, that means much less competing inventory should arrive in 2027 and 2028.
It also shows that markets are behaving very differently
Brad emphasizes that there isn't really one national BTR story.
Some Midwestern and other markets are showing strong rent growth — including Indianapolis, Miami, Chicago, Cleveland/Akron and Kansas City — while several Texas and Sun Belt markets remain weaker, including San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth.
That market divergence is important because he's essentially warning developers and investors not to apply national assumptions uniformly to every metro.
The Florida section is especially important
Because this was presented at NRHC Florida, Brad zooms in on Florida and makes the point that:
"Florida is not one BTR market."
For July 2026, the deck shows roughly:
Miami: +4.0% rent growth
Jacksonville: +1.8%
National: +0.3%
Tampa: -0.3%
Pensacola: -1.5%
At the same time, Florida's construction pipeline is thinning, with the deck showing approximately 3,000 BTR homes under construction in Orlando and about 2,000 each in Tampa and Jacksonville.
And this is really the actionable message
The most important part of the presentation may be the section titled "What to take back to the underwriting desk."
Brad gives the audience three recommendations:
1. Stop underwriting to 2024-2025 comps.
Those comps were heavily influenced by a period of unusually high deliveries and concessions. He's arguing that they shouldn't automatically be treated as the future steady state.
2. Time projects to deliver in 2027-2028.
Projects breaking ground now could lease into what Brad describes as the thinnest competitive supply environment in five years.
3. Focus on affordable BTR product.
The deck says more affordable rental-by-necessity product is running around 96.4% occupied with +3.3% rent growth, while lifestyle-oriented product is performing closer to flat or negative.
Download full Powerpoint presentation here
Source: Hunter Housing Economics
